EUROPE: Problems big and small
Estonia and Latvia — the EU and minority rights grievance politics
When Britain joined the EU many trade unionists were opposed to British membership. They viewed the EU as a capitalist club. Since that time most of the British political left and the trade unions have come round to supporting the EU. They have found there new champions for their causes after the rejection that they had experienced at the hands of the UK electorate. Similarly, most of the right in British politics has grown more and more sceptical of the EU in the face of bitter experience.
The first question that I pose in relation to the forthcoming new entrant states is, 'will there be a similar change of opinion in the Baltic States, and will initial perceptions about the EU be turned on their head?'
I think the answer to the this question is 'yes'. While, however, I have no doubt that the EU will hinder economic prosperity with a forest of regulations and a swamp of red tape it is something quite different that I want to address.
Britain joined the EU (or Common Market or EEC as it was previously known) because of perceived economic and trade benefits. One of the main reasons Estonia and Latvia wish to join the EU is for so-called 'soft security' reasons. The widely held view is that because of their proximity to Russia and their history with their gigantic neighbour they are too small on their own and they need to join a larger western union. Being part of the EU will not only confirm them as part of the western world but it will also protect them from Russian interference and perhaps in the future even protect them from military domination and invasion. Though an actual Russian invasion seems entirely out of the question now many people quite rightly wish to plan for a future that may be very different.
It is this perception of 'soft security' that I wish to look at. It is the assumption that the EU will help the Baltic States (as far as Russia is concerned) that I think could well be the cause of a 180 degree change in views on the EU and the Baltics.
Estonia and Latvia have very large Russian minorities. Minority rights and minority issues are very important political (and diplomatic) issues for Estonia and Latvia. It is in these areas that Russia applies much of it's international pressure.
There is a new political order in these newly independent states. Whether some or most Russians dislike or hate this does not affect the fact that this is the way things are now. Estonians rule Estonia and even if integrating or integrated Russians play a full part in that process that fact is not altered. Estonia makes it's own laws and has — for a little while longer — a free and sovereign parliamentary democracy. Even if a minority in the population may resent this turnaround it is accepted as the way that things are now.
While minority rights politics is nothing new there is something coming from the west that Estonia and Latvia do not have. The best way I can find to describe this part of left-wing western political culture is 'politically correct grievance politics'. While I do not think for a minute that most Estonians or Latvians are about to be taken over by a new politically correct consciousness (the bitter reality of occupation is too close for them to be taken in by such nonsense) they may be forced down paths they do not want.
The proposed EU constitution if implemented (which it broadly will be I would suspect) will take sovereignty away from member states and national parliaments on a significant and growing range of public policy areas.
Those Russians who believe that the post-Soviet and disliked new political order is a given to be got on with are about to awake to a new and unexpected vehicle for their politics. Whilst of course I for one have absolutely nothing against integrating Russians having full political rights and political influence, I do have a problem with that politics being propagated through an undemocratic set of institutions (the EU). Actually, I have a problem with any kind of politics in Europe being played out in undemocratic institutions. This is not because of some great love of democracy — it’s because all the other systems of government are indeed worse.
There is a fundamental difference between the Russian minority in Latvia and Estonia disliking the new arrangements and then getting on with it on the one hand and the EU alternative on the other. The EU alternative means that those who do not like the new order do not have to accept it. There is a new and more powerful set of political institutions coming into place and they do not respect (by definition) national sovereignty.
However, there is something more than the black and white changes in the political and legal framework about to take place. I have no doubt that the politically correct minority rights ideologues of western politics are going to get their teeth stuck into new and virgin territory. We have a whole grievance consciousness built up for every conceivable minority in the west. The new left calls this progress. But what about the whole new area of minorities in Eastern Europe?
This is the area where I believe a deadly cocktail is about to be foolishly mixed together again in Estonia and Latvia. These two countries already have large Russian minorities but they do not yet have a politically correct culture with powerful political institutions in place to give power to those who wish to stoke grievance politics.
It is hard for me to believe anything other than that the medium to long term implications of this new politics is increased social and ethnic unhappiness in the Baltics. Once set in motion I cannot see any way of this new dynamic being stopped. At the risk of repeating myself, there is a fundamental difference between an unhappy minority getting on with things as they are now and an unhappy minority realising that things do not have to be as they are because they now have new and powerful political institutions to work with. The political stability which currently prevails as between the majority and the minority in Estonia and Latvia is set to change in the EU: is in, in fact, almost certain to be massively disrupted.
This subject has been largely missed (as far as I know) from the Estonian and Latvian referendums because, one suspects, Estonia and Latvia are not particularly familiar with the politically correct culture in western media, education, social policy and politics. The second reason for an eerie silence on this is because of course those who most want to 'help' the new EU members with their minority rights politics are not going to say or do anything in advance of the referendums. Conveniently the populations and political classes in Estonia and Latvia think that the EU will help them deal with their gigantic neighbour. And the third reason for an absence of debate on this is that many in the Baltic states have put a naïve faith in the findings of certain political bodies who say that the way that Estonia and Latvia deal with their minority rights issues are fair. Even if faith could be put on findings like that being maintained (which I suspect are quite fair conclusions) it does not negate the further options of EU involvement in minority issues.
Minority politics affects education, social policy, regional policy, diplomatic relations and everything else — many of the areas that the EU is going to claim sovereignty over under the new constitution for the EU.
So what is the worst case scenario in the long term?
The worst case scenario is an upsetting of the political stability between the majority and minority populations leading to ethnic trouble. It does not need to start out with violence. If violence does occur it does not need to start out with anything particularly spectacular. Once the dynamic is in place there may be few limits placed on the Balkanisation of the Baltics.
What next?
Well, once Estonia and Latvia are part of the EU they will not be sovereign in their own territory (please read the proposed EU constitution). They will not have the final say over how to deal with trouble. What if there is trouble 30 years from now? Russia will still be big. Estonia will still be small. Europe will still take relations with Russia more seriously than with these little Balts, even if then they are technically the EU’s ‘little Balts’. America may still be looking at the big picture (Russia) and be happy to deal with them and sacrifice small issues. So what to do about trouble in the Baltics?
It might not be perceived as fair if only EU police or soldiers are keeping a lid on potential trouble. Surely the populations of Narva and Daugavpils ('Russian' towns in Estonia and Latvia) will feel that things are a bit fairer if there is some Russian involvement as well? Then what?
Who knows what the future holds. However things work out I do think that the EU will provide a new and unneccessary poison to minority issues politics in the northern two Baltic states. It's time that the 'Russian card' was played correctly in the referendum campaigns — it's time for the 'no' campaign to play the so called Russian card.
Douglas Taylor is a Tory candidate for the European “parliament” in Scotland
Douglas Taylor, September 4, 2003 12:27 AM